Americans are leaving counties with high air-quality risk at a slower pace than during the pandemic, and cost—not climate—appears to be the primary driver behind where people move.
Source: Original report
Migration Away From High-Risk Counties Is Slowing
In 2025, U.S. counties classified as high-risk for poor air quality saw a net outflow of roughly 278,000 residents—a significant number, but less than half the peak net departure of about 603,000 recorded in 2021. Each year since the pandemic-era exodus, that outflow has declined, according to a Redfin analysis of U.S. Census Bureau domestic migration data combined with climate-risk scores from First Street, a division of MSCI.
The trend suggests that while air quality may be a background concern for some households, it is not the dominant force shaping American relocation decisions. Affordability, job access and lifestyle factors appear to carry considerably more weight.
Cost, Not Clean Air, Shapes the Pattern
A close look at which high-risk counties are gaining or losing residents reveals a clear affordability pattern. The counties posting the largest net outflows—Los Angeles, Brooklyn (Kings County), Queens, Orange County and Santa Clara—are among the most expensive real estate markets in the country. The average median sale price across the ten high-risk counties with the steepest departures exceeds $900,000, more than double the national median.
By contrast, the high-risk counties drawing new residents tend to be relatively affordable inland markets. Ada County, Idaho (home to Boise), led all high-risk counties with a net inflow of more than 8,500 residents last year. Riverside County, California, and Placer County, California—encompassing Palm Springs and parts of Lake Tahoe, respectively—were close behind. The average median sale price among the top ten high-risk counties gaining residents is roughly $522,000, well below coastal metro benchmarks.
Places Bucking the Outmigration Trend
Several high-risk counties are actually growing, underscoring that smoky skies alone are not enough to deter movers when other conditions are favorable:
- Ada County, ID (Boise/Eagle): Net inflow of approximately 8,500 residents
- Riverside County, CA (Palm Springs/Temecula): Net inflow of approximately 7,758
- Placer County, CA (Lake Tahoe area): Net inflow of approximately 7,074
- Canyon County, ID and Weld County, CO also posted notable gains
These destinations offer a mix of relative affordability, outdoor recreation and resort-town appeal—attributes that appear to outweigh air-quality risk for many movers.
Low-Risk Counties Are Also Seeing Slower Inflows
Counties at low risk of poor air quality continue to attract more residents than they lose, but that momentum has also weakened. Net inflows to low-risk counties reached roughly 296,000 in 2025, about half the level recorded at the height of pandemic-era relocation in 2021. The parallel slowdown in both categories reflects a broader normalization of migration patterns as pandemic-driven mobility fades.
Wildfire Smoke Is Increasingly Borderless
Part of what complicates any climate-based migration strategy is that wildfire smoke does not stay put. Canadian wildfires pushed unhealthy air across the Midwest and East Coast in recent summers, and regional fire events have repeatedly blanketed areas far from the burn zones. Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather noted that even after relocating from Seattle to Wisconsin, her family encountered smoke. "You can choose a place with lower risk," she said, "but there's no smoke-free bubble to move to."
That reality may help explain why buyers are increasingly focused on mitigation rather than relocation. A recent Redfin survey found that 36% of prospective homebuyers now list high-end air and water filtration systems as a must-have feature—ranking it above views, smart-home technology and luxury amenities like pools. Portable air purifiers, N95 masks, upgraded HVAC filters and regular AQI monitoring are among the practical steps households in smoke-prone regions are adopting.
Key Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers
For anyone evaluating a move, this data points to a few practical conclusions:
- Air quality risk is present in nearly every region of the country, making it difficult to fully escape through relocation alone.
- Housing costs remain the primary driver of where Americans choose to live, even in areas flagged for elevated environmental risk.
- Investing in home air filtration and having an action plan for poor-air days may offer more practical protection than moving to a theoretically lower-risk market.
- High-risk markets with strong lifestyle draws—ski towns, resort communities, affordable Sun Belt suburbs—continue to attract residents despite their risk profiles.
