Buyer discounts on homes peak in late August through late September depending on the metro, with cities like Austin, Baltimore and Las Vegas each hitting their own deal-making sweet spots, according to a Redfin analysis.
Source: Original report
Timing Your Home Purchase Could Mean Real Savings
If you're in the market for a home, when you make your move matters almost as much as where you look. A new analysis from Redfin and Home Economics pinpoints the specific weeks in late summer and early fall when buyers in major U.S. metros are most likely to secure meaningful discounts — through seller price reductions, negotiations, or both.
The core finding: discounts off a home's original asking price tend to build through late summer and reach their highest point in early fall before leveling off or shrinking as winter approaches. But the precise timing varies considerably by city.
Late August: The Prime Window for California, Austin and NYC Suburbs
Buyers hunting for bargains in Northern and Southern California markets — including Anaheim, Oakland, Sacramento and San Jose — are best positioned to find deals in late August. The same timing applies to Austin, TX, Portland, OR, and two communities just outside New York City: Nassau County, NY and Newark, NJ.
Buyers in Atlanta, Denver and Seattle should consider waiting just slightly longer: the analysis points to early September as the local sweet spot for those metros.
Mid-September Favors Texas, Nashville and Baltimore
Across much of Texas (outside Houston), Southern California, Baltimore, Jacksonville, FL and Nashville, TN, the strongest negotiating conditions arrive in mid-September. Sellers who listed in spring or early summer without finding a buyer are often more willing to cut prices or offer concessions by this point in the season.
Redfin senior economist Asad Khan noted that seasonal patterns suggest buyers in these markets looking for value may benefit from intensifying their search as summer winds down. Sellers who have been on the market for months without a deal tend to become more flexible heading into fall.
Late September Is the Sweet Spot for Houston, Las Vegas, San Francisco and D.C.
Buyers in Houston, Las Vegas, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. have a later window for peak discounts, with the best deal-making conditions arriving in late September. These buyers may have more time to search without sacrificing negotiating leverage.
Many of These Markets Favor Buyers Overall
An added advantage for buyers in many of these metros: market conditions already lean in their direction. In much of Texas, Nashville and Atlanta, active listings substantially outnumber active buyers, giving purchasers considerable leverage year-round — not just seasonally.
Redfin Premier agent Vanessa Leimback, who works in the Seattle area, noted that first-time buyers in particular are capitalizing on current conditions, qualifying for purchase incentives and securing seller concessions — often structured to help reduce mortgage rates. She also observed that homeowners who purchased before 2019 are using built-up equity to trade up to larger properties.
In seller-side markets like Nassau County and Newark, where competition remains elevated, paying close attention to seasonal deal windows becomes especially important for buyers seeking any pricing edge.
Balancing Price, Inventory and Competition
Redfin economists caution that seasonal timing is just one piece of the home-buying puzzle. Buyers should also weigh inventory levels and buyer competition. A larger pool of active listings improves the likelihood of finding the right property, while a surge in competing buyers can erode negotiating power and push prices up — even in a period that seasonally favors discounts.
The Redfin methodology tracked three key metrics across major metro areas: the week with the highest rate of new listings, the week with the most fresh active inventory, and the period when average discounts from original list prices reach their seasonal peak before plateauing.
- Most new listings: The week when new listing volume is highest relative to the annual average.
- Most fresh inventory: The week when active listings with 60 days or fewer on market are most plentiful.
- Best deals: The point at which average discounts approach a local maximum and begin to level off heading into late fall.
Understanding where your target metro falls on this calendar could help you time an offer more strategically — and potentially walk away with a better deal.
