Inflation Report Suggests Fed Rate Hike Likely, but Uncertainty Remains
Recent inflation data has markets bracing for a Federal Reserve rate hike, but the path ahead remains uncertain.
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Recent inflation data has markets bracing for a Federal Reserve rate hike, but the path ahead remains uncertain.
July consumer prices rose 3.4% annually, down from June's pace, as shelter costs slowed. The softer reading may help limit upward pressure on mortgage rates, though Fed rate cuts remain unlikely in September.
Wednesday's CPI report is shaping up to be the most consequential economic release of the week, with a potential September Fed rate hike hanging near 50/50 odds.
A surprisingly soft June CPI reading pushed inflation forecasts well below expectations, making a July 29th Federal Reserve rate hike unlikely and setting the stage for mortgage rates to ease.
April's inflation data came in slightly above forecasts, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's case to keep rates unchanged. In the near term, mortgage rates are expected to follow oil prices and progress in Middle East peace negotiations more closely than any single economic release.
Markets will parse April inflation data and any developments in Iran’s talks, keeping mortgage rates volatile. Key economic releases and Fed commentary add to the uncertainty.